For financial market analysts, production will rise more than 3% in 2019, despite falling in September
Analysts from more than 130 financial institutions improve the expectation of growth of the country’s industrial production. According to the estimate, calculated by the Central Bank and published every week through the Focus survey, the sector will grow by 3,24% in 2019, well above 2,22% expected for this year.
In the case of Cubatão, which produces inputs for the industries, the growth of the sector indicates the increase in orders for petrochemical and steel products.
According to Focus, the bet on the expansion of the industry has been getting stronger and stronger. Four weeks ago, the expectation was for a 3% growth in 2019. As this is a weekly review, the percentages usually vary by decimal.
However, the survey reflects disappointment with this year. Last month, analysts thought industrial output would rise 2,67%. You are now at 2,22%.
The result of industrial production in September, calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), shows a lack of breath. The indicator grew in eight regions surveyed and declined in seven.
The areas in the red ended up guaranteeing the retreat of the national average by 1,8%. This fall occurred because in the group of seven is São Paulo, with decline of 3,9%, losing only to Amazonas (-5,2%). Of the richer states, only Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul, grew respectively, with 1% and 1,3%.
However, the performance of the Brazilian GDP is still very low compared to the emerging ones and the neighbors of Latin America, except Argentina and Venezuela, respectively in recession and economic collapse. In Chile, the economy has grown 4% a year.
Industrial production is expected to rise in October. One of the strongest segments of the industry, the automotive industry had a robust expansion in the month, with the best October since 2014 and also with the highest monthly result since December.
The result of the auto industry is important because it indicates the advance of specific customers. If they are buying, it is because they have acquired the confidence to invest.
According to the president of Anfavea, Antônio Megale, the entity that brings together automotive manufacturers in Brazil, the manufacturers profit from the sale of trucks and agricultural machinery and the acquisition of car fleets by companies. However, the engine of this industry, which is the purchase of cars by the average consumer, is lacking.
The chemical segment has also given good results. According to the Brazilian Association of the Chemical Industry (Abiquim), the quarter ended in September was the best for the period in the last 12 years. But the director of Economics and Statistics of Abiquim, Fátima Coviello Ferreira, says that the segment faces the strongest input of imported. The problem of Brazilian chemistry, she recalls, is productivity – a low relation to that of other countries.
3,2 percent is the expected growth for 2019
1,8 percent was the industry fall in September
From time to time, the dollar rush tends to stimulate exports, noting that Brazil is the only emerging country whose economy is centered on domestic consumption.
In the Brazilian case, when the exchange fails to make the Brazilian prices more competitive, the export momentum is lost. According to a survey by the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Federal Government, 2,000 enterprises that exported in 2015 failed to do so in the following years.
A study by Sebrae points out that there is a lack of preparation of the entrepreneurs to work in the foreign market, besides facing the administrative bureaucracy and the complexity of the export procedures.
On the list of products sold by small Brazilian companies are women’s fashion, precious stones, footwear, furniture and perfumery products.
Source: A Tribuna Newspaper